Government announces end to badger culling to eradicate bovine TB

The new government’s announcement that badger culling will end won’t also end the polarisation of views around how best to eradicate bovine TB.

I broadly welcome the government’s announcement, providing it is backed by evidence-based strategies to improve cattle testing, better address cattle bio-security measures and to invest in cattle vaccination and the crucial and long-promised DIVA (to distinguish between vaccinated and infected animals) test.

The following is the Twitter/X commentary from one the the government’s members of its Bovine TB (Eradication) Partnership – Prof. Rosie Woodroffe of ZSL. Offering helpful and wise advice:

I’m seeing a lot of anger and disappointment in badger circles today that the badger cull is ending, but not ending fast enough. Apologies for the long thread, but let me explain why I think the news is the best it could be 1/25

First, some background. Remember, the culls were licensed with the intention of controlling cattle TB. You don’t have to spend much time around cattle farmers to see the impact TB has on their businesses and their mental health 2/25

A badger lover walks through those empty woods and past those dead setts and feels loss and longing for the badgers which were slaughtered. They feel angry at the people who made it that way 3/25

But the farmer who sees cows they’ve known since birth suddenly condemned and packed away for slaughter, or, worse, cows so heavily pregnant they have to be shot on the farm – I’ve seen tough old men break down in tears just recalling these things 4/25

In discussing this complex and difficult issue let’s please have some humanity. Farmers did what they thought they had to do to protect what they valued most. Anti-cull protestors did the same. The two sides may not agree on much but everybody is hurting. 5/25

Recently, evidence that badgers play only a small role in transmitting TB to cattle has been exaggerated to claim that they play no role at all. This is wrong, and it’s not helpful. Here’s one of the best sources of evidence on this https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1010075 6/25

Likewise, the contribution of badger culling to falling cattle TB has been exaggerated. The widely-cited claim of a “56% reduction” conflates the effects of badger culling with improved cattle testing inside cull areas https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-54062-4 Also wrong, also unhelpful 7/25

These distortions of the evidence happen because the issue is so controversial. Farmers had to fight hard to get the cull, and campaigners fought hard to stop them. Everyone is subject to confirmation bias: they take in evidence consistent with their existing views, forgetting contrary evidence 8/25

Why is all this relevant to yesterday’s announcement? Because it helps to understand what would have happened if the government had acted differently 9/25

If the existing licences were withdrawn right now, three things would happen. First, the cull companies would seek judicial review. And most likely they would win. Their lawyers would cite published research showing the benefits of culling take ≥4 years to emerge 10/25

Second, the issue will become, if anything, even more polarised. A legal battle between government and farming leaders will entrench the narrative of a metropolitan elite pitted against the countryside. Ending the cull would be further away than ever 11/25

Third, a proportion of farmers would do what a proportion of wildlife lovers did when faced with a policy which transgressed their ideas of both evidence and values. They would take the law into their own hands and do what they believed to be needed 12/25 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0743016711000167

Illegal badger killing is nearly impossible to police. If wildlife crimes can be undetected even when committed in broad daylight, by people wearing bright red jackets and blowing horns, how much harder is it to detect crimes committed quietly, at night? Banning foxhunting did not end fox hunting and banning badger culling alone will not end badger killing 13/25

As long as farmers believe that killing badgers is the solution to TB, badgers will be killed. And, culling will remain politicised, to be brought back at the next change of government. Culling will only end for good when farmers want it to end 14/25

The good news is that there is an opportunity right now to make that happen. It’s a tiny case study, but the farmers in our mid-Cornwall badger vaccination area saw TB declining in badgers, and they are delighted with the approach https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pan3.10691 15/25

In theory, following culling with vaccination should let the badger population recover while continuing to force down the disease, getting closer to actual eradication https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0248426 16/25

And of course, lots of improvements can be made to cattle testing, tracing, and trading. Cattle vaccination gets closer each day. But anything that kills more cattle and impedes trade impacts farm businesses, and will be hard to accept without also managing TB in badgers 17/25

Combining all these approaches and monitoring the outcomes should allow farmers to see TB going down, and staying down. They should see that badger culling is no longer needed. Come the next election, hardly anyone will vote to bring it back 18/25

In theory, the wildlife sector could play a key role in making this happen. Most badger vaccinators, and most vaccination trainers, work for wildlife groups. In theory, they could help deliver large-scale vaccination, and train farmers to deliver it themselves 19/25

But that’s a big “in theory”. In practice there is a huge chasm of mistrust between farmers and wildlife groups. And the way that the wildlife sector uses evidence plays a big role in that mistrust 20/25

Pretending that badgers play no role at all, and that culling never works, makes the wildlife sector look stupid. It makes us look like a faith-based movement, not a science-based one. It encourages farmers to dismiss wildlife expertise, and stick with familiar narratives on culling 21/25

Make no mistake, the cost of continuing existing cull licences is a high one for badgers. I estimate about 14,500 badgers will die this year, and another 7,000 next year, before the existing licences expire 22/25

But I don’t see an alternative. Previous governments viewed badger vaccination as an exit strategy from culling (see https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-government-s-policy-on-bovine-tb-and-badger-control-in-england ) but invested too little in
securing evidence, buy in, & capacity 23/25

Getting these in place takes time. Two years is not really enough. It certainly can’t be done while fighting legal battles and entrenching views still further 24/25

So, please, wildlife colleagues: rise to the occasion and offer help to farmers, not condemnation. There is no solution to badger culling until farmers have a solution to TB. Be part of the solution, not part of the problem 25/25